Wednesday, 4 March 2020

COVID-19. Crisis length of time from non-containment until recoveries exceed cases reported. March 4, 2020 update.

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Cases (definition) - Coronavirus symptoms can be from mild, negligible, absent, to severe. The case numbers recorded below are for people who have referred to the medical profession. For every 1 case, there is likely an affected 1000-10,000 or more people whose symptoms are mild, or they may be asymptomatic. In other words, please don't under-estimate this virus, and please don't read "Cases" as "only" or "all" cases. These figures likely relate only to the most severe cases where ventilator oxygen therapy or other hospital treatments are needed. Thanks.


March 4, 20206:54 UTC

March 4, 2020
6:52 UTC

Notable changes  (in the last 13 hours)
  • South Korea - 143 more cases, 1 more death, 7 more recoveries, 
  • Italy, Iran - no reported changes. I would say that numbers of sick people are now so huge that neither of these governments want to admit to their people (nor the world) exactly what is happening. Eg: 10% of Iranian members of parliament now have COVID-19. There are 290 seats in the house = 30 or more members are likely unwell. Does this 10% reflect what's happening in the rest of the county as well? >
  • France - 8 more cases
  • Germany - 16 more cases
  • Spain - 9 more cases
  • USA - 22 more cases 
  • Singapore, Hong Kong - no or negligible change. Containment and treatment going well.
  • Switzerland - 11 more cases
  • Australia, Iceland, Algeria - 3 more cases each
  • Canada, Denmark - 4 more cases
  • Iraq, Sweden, UAE - 6 more cases each
  • India - 15 more cases
  • 3 more countries are now reporting.

Summary. Crisis length of time from non-containment until recoveries exceed cases reported.
  • China - 119 more cases, 36 more deaths, 2489 more recoveries. China is well over the tipping point. Recoveries now well-exceed the number of cases being reported (ppl 1.4 B). I think this shows us the natural life-cycle of COVID-19 which seems to be a 6-week cycle in cases where containment was not achieved. Ie: In China's case from around 21 January to 2 March. Are we looking at 6 weeks for other places as well? eg: South Korea's non-containment began on around February 20 so will natural subsidence occur (where recoveries exceed reported cases) around 6 weeks later? This takes us through to the 2nd week in April. Only time will be able to tell if my hypothesis is true.
  • If the above is true, Italy and Iran could expect for recoveries to also exceed reported cases at around the same time - the 3rd week in April ??  However, I do believe that in places where containment was never achieved that the death tolls per capita will be much, much higher. We see this for both countries right now: Italian death toll = 79 and the Iranian death toll = 77 after just 3 weeks of non-containment (since around 12 February). The death tolls in both of these countries will get much, much, higher. 
  • For countries where good containment is happening, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, let's see if the time is any shorter for the crisis period to be over. Their death tolls per capita should be a lot less than countries that did not achieve containment. In fact, Singapore might have already reached its peak yesterday with 2 more cases reported on 3 March juxtaposed against 4 more recoveries. Again, only time will show if my hypothesis is true. Singapore's numbers kicked off on 30 January... so this could point to a 4-week cycle if containment, tracking and treatment measures put in place, are effective.

- by BronnyNZ

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