Thursday, 26 July 2018

Sweden polls: Election September 9, 2018. MMP system - not "first past the post".


The USA has a "first past the post" system, where the party with the most votes gets to form a government.

In a "Mixed Member Proportional" (MMP) system such as Sweden and New Zealand, every vote for a particular party made by consituents sees that proportional numbers of representatives of that party are given seats in the government. eg: If 25% of people vote for Party A then 25% of the seats in parliament are taken by that party. It is rare in such systems for any party to get over 40% of the vote. It then becomes necessary for the various parties to find other parties with very similar policies to join together and form a government.

Example from NZ elections:

Percentage of vote

44.4%
NAT

36.9%
LAB

7.2%
NZF

6.3%
GP

0.5%
ACT

4.6%
OTHER















The example above was for the New Zealand September 2016 election. The National Party couldn't form a government with 44% of the vote and had no coallition partners who wanted to work with them. It was therefore left to Labour (36.9), New Zealand First (7.2) and the Green Party (6.3) to join together to form a government with 50.4% of the total vote cast by NZ constituents.

This is how MMP works.

Please look at the polling results below for Sweden. It's going to be a very interesting election!

The line of interest to me personally is the yellow line - Swedish Demokrats (SD) and in Swedish: "Sverige Demokraterna".

This party is considered "right wing" and nationalistic, and therefore gets labelled as "Nazi". This label is entirely erroneous. "Nazi" is the normal label given to European parties that are "Euro-skeptic", ie: European parties, leaders (eg: Viktor Orban of Hungary, Sebastian Kurtz of Austria, Marine Le Pen of France and Nigel Farage of the UK), or people in general who disagree with being ruled over by unelected officials such as Jean-Claude Juncker and Angela Merkel who sit in the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium - telling 28 European countries what they have to do. Eg: Mass immigration from Africa and the Middle East from August 2015-2018. Countries who are Euro-skeptic believe they should be able to run their own countries as they want to... (funny that!) - That's why they are called "Nazi".

As Mr Spock on Star Trek would say: "That is illogical."  Indeed, it is.


The following is from Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the Swedish general election, 2018


Graphical summary
10 poll average trendline of poll results from September 2014 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Parties

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